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Old 08-22-2007, 07:19 PM
Setzy Setzy is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 60
Default Re: 100NL ....why would he check the turn?

Man I got in too late here, and I hate seeing the results, because I was going to point out the unliklihood of the majority of the hands besides a set.

First of all, how many hands is 13/3/3 over... 10 hands, 100, 1000? Is he a rock, a regular, or just an unknown? If it's a legit sample size, think about villain's position, which is UTG+1. How many of you are playing AQ UTG+1 to a raise when you have a 13 vpip? Maybe AQh. Maybe.

Plenty of folks don't reraise QQ. On the flop when you were raised, you said your thoughts moved to 22/99...a set. But you also go on and say you can't just fold there. Why not 3-bet the flop on a drawy board? I'd be happy to play for stacks here.

Villain takes control of the hand, but shows weakness by checking the turn back, which confuses you. Rightly so.

However, superceding this is the enormous raise on the river. This is why we need to know more about villain. Who is this guy, is he capable of raising the river with less than close to the nuts, which is so rare at 100NL FR?

I don't think you played the hand too terribly, but I would definitely, definitely, fold the river.

A big lesson I think that a lot of people can learn from this hand is to understand how slim EP ranges are, especially versus UTG or UTG+1 raisers. Someone having 13 VPIP most likely is not going to have 13 VPIP UTG+1, it's probably closer to half that.
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