[catcher193]

*we checked the river intending to snap off a bluff, once he bets, we can forget about this and move on to the next stage of the hand.

*To everyone who has said whiffed draws will just fold to the river C/R, whats your point?

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All, these are the ONLY things we need to consider on the river AFTER we check AND he bets:


a) if I C/R will I ever get 3 bet bluffed off my hand on the river?
uhh, no. In over a million hands I can only remember seeing 2 people (not including myself), pull off a weak C/R inducing bet to rebluff with air successfully.
It just does not happen, not here.


b) does a call show positive expectation?
I think its pretty unanimous that it does.


c) does a river value C/R yield a higher expectation than a call?


Well to figure this out we need to know the following:

- What is his handrange for betting $20 on the river?
I just do not see people ever value betting anything stronger than TPTK on this river that small, I think his handrange is almost entirely worse than ours.

- Which of these hands does he call a C/R with?
This is where it gets tricky IMO, but I think his river sizing is such a bad tell that he almost always has worse here, making our bet essentially a freeroll (doesn't matter, but for arguments sake almost all worse Q's, and maybe the 2% of the time he shows up here with TPTK+)

- What river C/R sizing yields the highest expectation?
It seems our opponent is fairly donkish, against others I might make a min C/R or C/R shove and try to "level" them however I see fit, but this guy... I think $70 on this river fits well as a smooth $50 raise that he should call with worse more than twice as much as he'd call a raise to $120 with, and nearly as often as he calls a smaller sized river C/R.




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[ QUOTE ]
If you had a loose image maybe you could check raise the river all in to rep a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
villian like 1/6th potted the river IP, I don't think he is very very good (not that his sizing is all justification).

IMO his though process will go something like this when facing a shove:
HE BET BIG HE HAVE BIGGER HAND THAN ME, (resulting in a fold)

however, even if he is on level 1 here he has to know his river bet induces action, which is why IMO a medium sized C/R is best.