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Old 08-21-2007, 02:44 PM
helter skelter helter skelter is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 267
Default Re: probabilty of ATC opponent flopping flush draw

Ok, well I will try to clarify it better.

I am trying to evaluate playing a certain marginal hand against ATC opponents. I want to estimate implied odds and weigh it against the cost of entering the pot, so I am trying to estimate the probabilty of certain situations arising, for example, I flop 2 pair while my opponent flops a flush draw. There are many other situations that might occur with my marginal hand, and I want to evaluate each one.

My marginal hand is offsuit, so first I wanted to find the probability that I will flop 2 pair at the same time that my opponent flops a flush draw given that I have one of his suit. I figured I would multiply the probability that I flop 2 pair with the probability that he will flop a flush draw, using the poker odds calculator.

I then realized that implied odds will be different if his flush draw has an overcard. Although I will win slightly less often in that case, my opponent might be willing to call a much larger bet with that flush draw, so the implied odds could be significantly higher.

I don't know how to model that using the poker odds calculator, so I set up a scenario with a given flop and then went and counted the hands he could have using a hand chart to get a separate count for the 2 cases. Before even separating the cases, though, I noticed that it showed that the percentage of flush draw hands he could have was a much lower percentage out of the possible hands using this method, I wanted to be sure I use the correct method/procedure before I continue, so that is why I am asking this question.
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