Re: how badly did i botch this hand?
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Let's consider the 'perfect storm' situation where you confront both a made flush and a set.
Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 61.905% 61.90% 00.00% 26 0.00 { KhJh }
Hand 2: 23.810% 23.81% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QcQs }
versus a best case where you are against top pair and a totally dominated draw
Board: 8h 4h 2s Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.238% 95.24% 00.00% 40 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KhJs }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 2 0.00 { AcQc }
In case one, if you get four-bet and everyone calls you got sucked into a 1.14 BB mistake.
In case two, by _not_ three betting when both opponents would call you made a 1.86 BB mistake.
My point being, the equity you lose from not three betting in the best case is actually a bigger loss than when you get four-bet with poor outs.
Since I don't think the action at the crucial point on the turn has weighted you overwhelmingly to case 1, three betting is plausible because of your very good redraw.
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I think 1.14 vs 1.86 BB comparison is moot, since once the turn is raised you are far more likely to be facing case 1 (or some other case where you are behind).
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