[ QUOTE ]
<ul type="square">[*]win t100 from one player[*]lose t100 to one player[*]win t500 from one player[*]lose t500 to one player[*]stack one player[*]you get stacked[*]you and another player lose t100 and t500, respectively, to a third player[*]two other players play a t200 pot after you fold[*]two other players play a t1000 pot after you fold
and calculate your ICM-based prize pool equity[/list]
[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, I did that:
Secnario / result on my equity
1 / 10.60
2 / 9.39
3 / 12.95
4 / 6.88
5 / 18.44
6 / 0
7 / 9.41 (me) 6.88 (other loser)
8 / 10.00
9 / 10.02
[ QUOTE ]
After that, guess probabilities for each of these cases and multiply each case's probability by it's equity. By changing the probabilities of the bigger pots, you can see what effect cEV-neutral plays with big swings have on your overall tournament equity.
[/ QUOTE ]
Here's where it gets confusing for me:
Scenario/ Prob.%/ P * E
1/ 20/ .2*10.6 = 2.12
2/ 15/ .15*9.39 = 1.4085
3/ 5/ .05*12.95 = 0.6475
4/ 3/ .03*6.88 = 0.2064
5/ 4/ .04*18.44 = 0.7376
6/ 2/ .02*0 = 0
7/ 15/ .15*9.41 = 0.4705
8/ 30/ .30*10.00 = 3.00
9/ 4/ .04*10.02 = 0.4008
Changed**/ Prob.% / P * E
1 / 20 / .2*10.6 = 2.12
2 / 15 / .15*9.39 = 1.4085
3** / 8 / .08*12.95 = 1.036
4 / 3 / .03*6.88 = 0.2064
5 / 4 / .04*18.44 = 0.7376
6 / 2 / .02*0 = 0
7** / 20 / .20*9.41 = 1.882
8 / 30 / .30*10.00 = 3.00
9 / 4 / .04*10.02 = 0.4008
Sorry for being obtuse, but what am I seeing here? It looks like the results on equity are small when limping a speculative hand early (as long as you don't get trapped into losing a big pot) and that even a small change in the probability of a big pot happening makes a significant difference in the final calculation. But what does that final calculation really mean? Is it an index so I can see the scale of the change, or is there a more concrete relationship between the answers and either my chip stack size or my tourney prize equity?
I fear I have just unmasked a complete lack of understanding as well as my inability to format a post so that anyone can read it. Sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]