[WarhammerIIC]

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Calculating EV. I've always been a little confused here when to count money I've put in and when not too.

Contrived example. In a simple blindless/rakeless game of poker I raise pre-flop to xBB. My opp calls xBB. The villian nor I look at our cards, and we have a simple strategy. I will c-bet 2/3P and he will fold 65% of the time. 35% of the time he will call. Those times he calls, he will bet the turn and I will fold.

(.65)(+P) + (.35)(-2/3P)=+5/12(P).

This formula (borrowed from Killer Poker by the Numbers) shows us to be making money. We are +EV.

Unfortunately we actually go broke in this game if we brute force it (actually play it out). Why?

(.65)(+P) + (.35)(-2/3P)=+5/12(P).

Let's note that in order to create P, I invested 1/2P and my opponent invested 1/2P preflop. So in order to break even, I have to win 1/2P or 6/12P. If my EV is 5/12, I am LOSING money.

So what am I missing? How can I have positive EV and lose money?

Note that if we subtract my initial investment from our result, I will get the -EV result.

5/12P - 6/12P = -1/12P.

So I'm confused.

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Once your money goes into the pot, it's part of the pot. You don't subtract it from the pot when making EV/pot odds/etc calculations. +5/12 is positive EV.