Re: a noob\'s take on HOW TO DOMINATE $1 and $2 NO LIMIT HOLD\'EM
Sorry Sam but I only played limit for about two weeks at 0,1/0,2.
First of all the AT of clubs-example:
If you aren't a fan of "just having 50 % pot equity" than we can take another approach:
You have 12 outs to the nuts. You also have an overcard with the ace. Of course you have to discount and it should be right to call it 1 and a half out. Overall you should have 13,5 outs and you are about a 2,5:1 dog.
With his pot sized bet you get exactly 2:1 pot odds. A call isn't a big mistake here even if you ignore the implied odds. Let's say the pot is $ 10, he bets 10, you hit your nutflush on the turn and he makes another pot sized bet of 30, you raise and he folds. You just risk 10 to win 40 and are getting way more than 2,5:1. And I think this should be the least money you can get from an aggressive oppenent sitting there with top pair, or even two pair.
If you call and a blank comes on the turn, things change a lil bit. The odds are approximately the same but you just have one betting round left. So if you put Murphy on the turn a fold should be ok.
I know you know this stuff but I think even without the option of raising, a call still favors a fold because if you just have pretty marginal implied odds the expected value is positive.
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These grow exponentially
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Right but this isn't an argument. The only thing that counts should be pot odds (if we play too deep to consider the stacks or like you without stacks) and not which amount he bets. The problem on the turn is not that the pot sized bet is "larger" than the bet on the flop but there's only one betting-round and not as much money to bet left.
I saw that you discuss stack sizes later in the book but I think you should at least mention the stacks in the examples because it changes things dramatically!
Again, I like your book and will finish in within the next days but some decisions are too passive -for my taste (Yeah, I'm a new kid on the block...).
Also I think you ignore the importance of stack sizes in the early examples.
Best,
BaW
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