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Is this a good spot vs a 30/20ish villain? River should be a bet I think.
Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (
6 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>,
2 folds, BB calls.
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (
4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.
Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (
4.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.
River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (
8.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
Results:
Final pot: 8.25BB
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This is one of those reverse hands like brassmonkey's.
I agree with you about the river being a must-bet since he has a pair < Aces + draw a ton here.
But the more I think about it, I think you should just call--too many combos can easily 3-bet you here and very few manage to fold before the river (and we all know how hard it is to get people to fold pairs on the river).
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I agree that the strategic choice is between raising the turn and bluffing the river or calling the turn and folding the river UI. I'll admit that in this very spot I usually raise the turn and bet the river, but that doesnt mean its right.