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Old 08-19-2007, 07:17 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: Probability of flopping 2pr?

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This is correct - 2.2% - I looked it up in Super System to check...

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If you looked it up in Super System, then you should have caught his error in arithmetic. His formula is correct, but it comes to 99/4900 =~ 2.02%, not 99/4600 =~ 2.15%. Super System reports this correctly (original version, table XIX, AKs flops A-K and smaller card).

Note that this does not include 2-pair made with a pair on the flop (like AK flops A22). If we include these, it would add another 2.02% as the probability is exactly the same for this type of 2-pair.
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