Re: Downswings.
My opinion is that -30BI or so over 100K is possible for even an excellent player. I don't really have the math to back it up; it's just based on having been around the game for a number of years and seeing virtually all good (and great) players I know, including myself, go through something in this realm.
What I can say with confidence is that most people lie about their results. It seems that in this internet poker era, people are slightly more honest about their own results, for 2 main reasons: 1)More level-headed, scientific-type players are now playing the game at a high level, and these types are a little more likely to be honest than the old, road gambler types IMO (due to a little less ego-related attachment to results on the part of the new school). 2)Datamining, online forums, etc. make it easier than ever before for others to keep tabs on how you are doing, so high-profile people are slightly less likely to lie, knowing they might be caught.
That said, here's an example of the type of dishonesty about results that you'll find here: a couple of long break-even stretches were mentioned above. How do you think the people going through that "break-even" period were doing about 10k-20k hands prior to the end of it? My guess is, they were doing much worse. So actually, when you hear about a 100k break-even stretch, that is likely to be a 70k stretch where the player was -5bbs/100 or whatever, followed by a 30k stretch where they were +12bbs/100, or something similar. Again, I know this is not scientific, but I think people who have a lot of experience with high-stakes, highly successful players will agree that there's less honesty with others when the going is rough.
This is no crime, since your results are your own business and nobody else's, but it can have negative effects on others, when you get something like a public consensus (i.e. the ideas on this board) reflecting that dishonesty. Play a lot of HSNL, and you will experience some things that will turn your stomach, whether you're a nitty grinder or a world-class LAG.
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