Re: Chances of outflopping Aces
Poker Monkey,
I think I see what your getting at and the answer is its poker dude. Who the $%*# knows what the flop will bring, but I will say this for you. If you can indeed narrow your opponents hand down to AAXX then by all means call a 3 bet pre flop with all the holdings you asked about. You're never worse off than 60-40 pre flop against most hands. If you hit 2 pr on the flop you're slightly better than 54%. If you do hit TTP w/ a hand like 9876 then you also have a nice wrap to your 2 pair. So basically I believe you out flop aces about 35-40% of the time and the other times its a very easy fold on the flop when you miss. The most important thing about this post is that you are indeed able to recognize your opponents hand. Play his aces against him. If an ace comes on the flop or 2 to a flush you can put him on trips and mabye even nut flush draw depending on his flop bet. I make more and more of my money not from playing aces myself, but from recognizing that my opponent has aces and playing his hand against him. I'll take a flop with the theoritical A,B,C, and D hands against aces all day long.
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