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However, when you consider the chances of getting 3-bet plus the flush redraw that makes you lose even if you hit your hand, you really need a larger pot to make up for those times you get caught.
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I completely agree with your assessment of relative position, but didn't we already discount our outs for the flush redraw? Why do we have to reduce our odds again?
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Here was the original post:
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FLOP: I counted 1 out for each overcard and 3 outs for the IStD (because I did not count the diamonds). I need 9 big bets to continue with 5 outs, and due to my opponents agressiveness I knew i could extract 2 extra big bets so I would have Implied odds to take one card off.
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My understanding of this is that one card for each over is to remove the diamonds as outs. This is different from increasing the required implied odds necessary to chase.
When you say that you're removing/reducing [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] cards as outs, it's because the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] card brings a flush. But the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] redraw affects your non-flush outs because you can hit your card and still lose, as opposed to K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] being a fake out because it doesn't actually give you the best hand.
I'm really loose with the numbers here. I started with the 15 SB pot needed, bumped it a couple SB because of fear of getting 3 bet and bumped it a couple more because of the flush redraw. I don't have a good scheme to estimate this sort of thing.
The digest has a link to an
older post of mine that has the following:
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Here's some very general advice. On the flop,
if the odds are very close, call for one and fold for two (of course, this isn't a rule but a simplistic model to use as a crutch while you develop the necessary skills to make good decisions consistently). When it's one bet, you often have better implied odds than you think because there tend to be extra players seeing the turn and river. Usually when it's two bets to you, your outs are not quite what they appear to be and your reverse implied odds are higher (the exception is a flush draw). Being aware of the factors besides pot odds will dramatically increase your ability to make the right play. I've only given a very simple example of adjusting the odds based on generically applied implied odds and reverse implied odds considerations. Think about position, relative position, players' tendencies, and hand ranges to help you make smart plays.
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This hand fits into this idea very well.