Re: JJ turn CRAI
Rising $2,000 to win $540 seems like laying max odds on the don't pass line.
You could very well have the best hand already, and you probably fold out big draws with this overbet. So, you get worse hands to fold instead of pay to draw out.
Worse hands that might have paid you off a little more, like AT or some similar TPWK hand probably fold.
TT and 88 instacall, obviously.
So the question is whether you have increased your fold equity vs QQ-AA with the over bet or decreased your fold equity vs those hands. They might very well find the overbet too suspicious and call. Or, they might put you on a set and fold. If you felt this villain gets squeemish with overpairs for his stack on the turn, then the overbet is good. But if you mis-read this guy and he looks you up with QQ-AA, then you're out an aweful lot of chips.
As a general rule, I'm not a big fan of the OOP overbet crai. It just seems like too much risk for too little reward.
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