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Old 08-16-2007, 07:49 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default Re: call 2 bets cold on the river?

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I wish you had bet the river. I also wish you had folded the flop.

As played, I guess I'd fold without a read. MP1's flop/turn line looks like a flush draw. MP2's river raise suggests he isn't afraid of a flush. They may both be aggro, but between the two of them, one of them is likely to hold it fairly often.

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Please comment my out counting in the previos post? Discounting all diamond outs and still having proper odds You say I should fold just because there may be a FD?

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I'm saying that you might want to reconsider your situation on the flop.

You're facing 2 small bets in an 11.5 small bet pot against two aggressive players. Giving yourself the 5 outs, you need something like 8.5:1 to continue. That means that by the end of the hand, you need to have a pot size of about 15 small bets. So up to this point, the estimate that you probably need to make up 4 small bets = 2 big bets is correct.

However, when you consider the chances of getting 3-bet plus the flush redraw that makes you lose even if you hit your hand, you really need a larger pot to make up for those times you get caught. So you can't be so optimistic with the implied odds and hope that it will work itself out. I would probably look for a 20-ish small bet pot size on the end before making this call.
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