Re: Hero folds?
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if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity.
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And if 3 gutshots overcall the potsize has nearly doubled. Risking losing 4BB 26% of the time vs. winning 3BB 74% of the time sounds like a good deal to me.
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the gutshot example.
pot is 5.25bb after guy bets, if we raise, the other gutters fold and he calls(neglecting our investment) the pot is 6.25bb. he doesn't put in another bet UI. we win that 6.25bb around 90% which equals about 5.63bb.
if the hypothetical 3 gutshots call the turn the pot will be(not including our investment) 7.25bb. we have .74 equity*7.25bb= 5.37bb.
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if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity
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At the expense of 3BB! That's a lot compared to what you're protecting. And that's assuming more than one of the opponents behind you is even drawing live, often they're not.
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on the turn it's an immediate cost of 2bb. odds are the original bettor calls with his 2-8 outer so we still gain at least the other bb from him and i'm sure he'll pay off a river bet with a worse ace most of the time.
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Agree but if you think 4-6BB is worth protecting from 2 and 4 outers you need to rethink your math.
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if you don't think a 6bb pot is worth protecting against as many as 6-14 cumulative outs i'm not the only one who needs to "rethink my math".
and Xhad, this all started when BBB said raisefolding the turn was "horrible". my REAL point was that it wasn't horrible and in some instances preferable. in turn, i'm not saying calling is horrible. if it was HU or maybe even 3handed it would certainly change things.
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