Re: Probability question
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What would be the expected number of places up or down in the draft order for a team to move given random drawings (can one even determine this)?
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In a random drawing, each possible permutation of teams has equal probability, so each team's net expected position is at 6.5. The expected change is thus (current position - 6.5).
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How can that be? Doesnt that result in all teams moving up on average? Eg last years 1st team cannot move up to -5.5.
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