Re: 10k SnG prop bet?
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I would think highly versed ICM players would fare worse in such a bet, since most pure math players push too small of an edge on average to have a 20% roi. You would really need to play unorthodoxed to have a better chance of winning the bet.
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The problem is that there are a lot of good players in the 55s that he will have to play against. THEY will be using close to perfect ICM against him so I don't see how he could exploit them to any great extent. Even if he loosens his calling standards when they hit pushbot mode, the good grinders will just adjust their ranges in response.
Also, a lot of the 55s grinders grind the 109s and 215s as well, so if he can only achieve an 8% ROI at those limits I really don't see where he can make up the other 12% at the 55s.
The only way he can win this bet is by running hot for 1000 sngs (or collusion).
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