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Old 08-15-2007, 03:23 PM
Irishman07 Irishman07 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 232
Default Re: explain to me the mathematics of a blocking bet

I think there could be some use for a blocking bet if you utilize fake blocks as well, especially if you're deep. Say for instance you're pretty sure villain has overpair or busted draw, and bluffs optimally so you can't call if he bets. If you bet ~1/2 pot with hands like tpgk, and occasionally a set it really makes it hard for him to raise because he's gotta risk a lot more if you come back over the top. Not sure if this really makes sense, and it gets really complicated because it depends so much on opponent's bluffing frequency. In theory I think it should work but in practice its tough to really gauge because not many people do it. Here's an example of a block bet gone wrong:

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($108)
Button ($334)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($400)</font>
BB ($156)
UTG ($770)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($251.40)</font>

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $12, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($42) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($42) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, BB folds, MP calls $20.

River: ($82) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $124</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $366 (All-In)</font>, MP calls $93.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $665.40

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Kh (one pair, threes).
MP has As Ks (one pair, threes).
Outcome: MP wins $516.80. Hero wins $148.60. </font>


On the turn I figured I'd take a cheap stab at the pot and when original raiser called I put him on either overs probably with the flush draw or a mid pp. He was the type that wasn't gonna slowplay a set on the flop or a flush draw + overs. So when I bet the turn I was hoping to take it down but also for information/setting up a river play. I figured my 1/2 pot would be +ev since he probably had marginal pair/overs roughly 50/50 of the time. If he folds his overcards most of the time I'll be good the 33% I need to break even. When he raised though I could put him on a busted draw with pretty good confidence so I shoved. Unfortunately he was apparently a thinking player and we weren't deep so I got owned. But if I ever take that line with a flush against him now I know I can bust him.

Short version: Block bets could probably work, but against good thinking players its gonna be real tough to figure out the optimal strategy.
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