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Old 08-15-2007, 02:05 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Probability question

Take a string of 12 numbers :

1_2_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_10_11_12

There are 12! different ways to arrange these numbers .

Assume that the first 5 are in the same order as last year . Again there is only 1 way that can happen . Now we can arrange the 7 numbers 6 through 12 which gives us an additional 7! combos .

12c5*7!/12! = 0.00833 or just under 1 % .

b) E(x)=1/12*(1+2+3+4+...12) = 6.5

where x takes on the values of your ranking order in the draft .
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