[Sunny Mehta]

Hi tipperdog,

Note that we simplified the "odds of winning" in this example to 1.5-to-1, partly because the example is there to review the Fundamentals (one of which is counting outs), and partly because we haven't gotten into the more complicated REM Process at that point in the book yet.

I don't think there's anything wrong with you wanting to delve into the hand more and treat it like it's a "full analysis" hand, but the thing is, if we do that, I'd actually draw the exact opposite conclusion as you.

If we actually assign these players ranges, hero probably has even less equity than we give credit for in the example!

First off, AP's range is way wider than AA/KK/AcKc. He's aggressive, and most of the time his flop bet is just a c-bet. I think it's far too optimistic to think that he's gonna stick his chips in with anything but a very strong hand after he bets the flop, gets raised by a tight player, and then sees an all-in from hero after that. What do you estimate is the probability that AP has a hand he's willing to commit to? It's pretty low.

Secondly, tight player's range alone is scary. If he has any pocket pair from jacks down to fours, hero is actually about a 2-to-1 dog against that range. Then even if you add in the fact that hero will get 2-to-1 on his money when (and that "when" is rare) AP comes along, the problem is that by adding AP's [strong] range into the equation hero's equity actually ends up being more like 25 percent (3-to-1).

Hero's draw is a weak non-nut straight draw on a flush draw board, his SPR is in the double digits, there's a bet and a raise in front of him, and he has zero f-equity. This is a fold.

Thanks a lot for the detailed post though.

-Sunny