[tipperdog]

I don't know how to factor in the "Doubts About Bodog/Cost of money" arguments that others have raised. But I do know politics (one of the very few things I know). It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that any third party candidate (particularly a relative unknown like Bloomberg) will poll at 19%.

However, before placing any bets, you should be sure to know all details about the bet. Specifically:

1. Is it 19% nationwide or only on states where he appears on the ballot? If he ran as an independent, it's unlikely he'd appear on the ballot in all states, meaning he won't get more than 0-3% as a write in. This will drive down his overall percentage.

On the flip side, if he only got on the ballot in the Northeast, he'd surely get over 20% in those states, but would be well under nationwide.

2. How does Bodog define "runs for president?" What if (and this is quite possible), he announces an exploratory effort, gets on a bunch of ballots and runs hard. He declares a candidate. But, he gets nowhere and drops out in Sept-Oct. However he's still on ballots and gets 5%. Do we win?