[bustedromo]

A month ago when I predicted in this forum that Townsend would be busto by end-of-year, you all dog-piled on me, irrationally so.

The scenario is playing out just as I predicted. Witness:

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I have been getting murdered HU at 300/600. I feel like I have a massive edge over my opponents but just can't seem to win. I think if you asked any high stakes regular the opponents I have been playing aren't nearly as strong as some I have done well against in the past. Maybe that is part of the problem that I lack concentration and I am getting overconfident, which is definitely possible. I also had a family emergence last week which has continued until today and I have played the entire time which was not smart as my mind is wandering more than usual. Its really bad downswing (I think about 20-25BI but I need to check) and I understand HU poker has tons of variance but still I think I need to take some responsibility for my poor results. I think there must be something that I am not seeing that is wrong with my game.

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Every time Townsend experiences a downswing of magnitude, he blames his play. He asks himself tough questions about his psychological/emotional state and his concentration. He looks on the problem in terms of opponents, to paraphrase "I should be able to crush these guys."

He is headed for a classic gambler's ruin where the variance kills him because he refuses to recognize that such variance is normal and expected and will have a nasty feedback effect on anyone's psychological/emotional state until their play really does begin to suffer.

He makes no effort to reduce his $ velocity. Yes he takes breaks, but he comes back after huge downswings at the same stakes he played at previously. He looks on gambling like a physical sport, such as rugby, in which there can only be one answer for poor performance: not trying hard enough.

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I'm not gonna lie or sugar coat anything. Times are tough right now. Though they aren't as tough as they were last April when I had my big plo downswing. Its very reassuring that I had so much success after that tough time. I know that I am going to rebound stronger than before as I always seem to do. I am at a poker low right now but my last low was much lower. I know that I will build upon this and be a stronger player for it. I think my opponents respect my PLO game much more than they used to and hopefully I can fix my HU game.

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He sees serious bankroll setbacks as opportunities to become a stronger player, rather than the potentially cataclysmic random events that they are.

In short, Townsend violates the first rule of professional gambling/trading: Never mistake what is actually happenning for what you think should be happenning.

Sklansky has chimed in here and there and generally agrees with my take on variance as it affects professional gamblers/traders who have never been busto before. It's a tough lesson to learn the hard way, and Townsend is directly headed towards learning it the hard way.

Gambling/trading is NOT like physical sports. It is also NOT like the craft-like professions, such as engineering and software development. Those who do not recognize the devastating potential of random downswings to destroy their game and force them outside of prudent risk management strategies will go busto.

As I stated previously, I have never known or even heard of a professional trader/gambler who has not gone big-time busto at least once in their career.

I give Townsend until the end of the year to be busto. Yes, my timing may be off, just like an astute short-seller's timing is off, but ultimately Townsend will crash and burn.