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Old 08-14-2007, 09:19 AM
Chris Daddy Cool Chris Daddy Cool is offline
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Default Re: Boring flop GS+Overs

two things you should mention in your post: you say you isoraised from the hj, but where did the fish limp from? that leads to the other question, is old white guy astute enough to know you may be raising light here?

anyways you're getting 12-3 immediately to 3-bet, 13-3 if the bb folds and fish calls, 15-3 if both guys call. however if it gets capped you're looking at 17-4

let's give old white guy a range of AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, since he's like, old and stuff.

12 combos of AK - 7 outs
6 combos of AA - 4 outs
3 combos of KK - 4 outs
3 combos of QQ - 7 outs
6 combos of JJ - 6 outs

Rough weighted outs: 177/30 = 5.9

However this figure doesn't account for the redraw AK has if a J hits the turn and a Q on the river and also the negative implied odds on hitting one of your pairs.

But more importantly which almost everybody fails to point out is the fish's hand range. He raised this flop in a 3-bet pot. Chances are he has some sort of piece of this board that taints and takes your outs. i mean there is a decent chance you might have only 3 outs and it is an absolute disaster if he has QJ here.

So with all those factors in place that 5.9 outs looks a lot closer to 5 than 6 and you're getting immediately 4-1 on a 3-bet; 4.3-1 if bb folds and fish calls, and 5-1 if they're both in (in which there is a very good chance you have at best 4 outs) and if it gets capped 4.25-1.

with your weighted outs at around 5ish, you're going to have to make up a little more than 2 big bets to make this cost worthwhile not to mention negative implied odds and redraws the bb and fish have combined.

on the surface it looks like a good chance to fight for your rights but the cost doesn't justify the means in this instance.

if the pot were a little bigger and/or the bb's 3-betting range was a little wider (like hand combos where you might conceivably have 6 to 10 outs or even the best hand) then you might have an argument.

i would fold in this spot though.
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