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Old 08-14-2007, 03:59 AM
LCposter LCposter is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: fighting to keep a 2-digit ROI
Posts: 184
Default Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109

I don't hate the play. You hope for check/check and a chance to see a free turn, and you have plenty of outs if he hit the flop, but I think his stack is too small for this to be optimal. Some percentage of the time he took a stab with air, in which case he'll fold to the CRAI. I think he's more likely to jam with a straight of flush draw, so his flop bet is most likely to indicate a pair.

In any case, he'll call the all-in with a pair or draw, and I think you would be behind his betting range. To me the best play given the stack sizes is to jam the flop, or make the "scarier" committing bet, e.g. 10K., where he knows he has zero fold equity on a shove.
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