Re: 25nl 350BB deep river decision
Given his lack of aggression here I think that we bet out about $20. If he has his straight he will either raise or call - if he raises we drop.
If all we do is check call we stand to lose the same amount (assuming that he bets about $20) if he has his straight, but we have no chance to win that same $20 if he has not hit his straight and checks it down. Based upon this, I think that checking is -EV. Anyone see this as flawed?
GRUNCH:
PREFLOP: Typical raise, well done.
FLOP: The cbet is obviously a must and we cannot assume that he will lead out. Do you think that, given his fishy nature, we may want to bet the pot here? I am assuming that you bet just under pot as it was in-line with your typical cbet, but is this guy clueless enough to where a full pot bet is warranted?
Turn: Bet again, standard. I have the same question about this bet size as the flop.
River: Discussed above.
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