Re: Question 33
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So my answer is: We have villain beat on the holdings (OESD, two pair) that best explain his betting, and we should move in.
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So, you are saying that Doyle would 3-bet 40% of his stack (or probably shove) on a draw or a weaker hand -- in order to get us to fold (right?) -- so we should therefore move all-in. As I said in my first reply, if the villain thinks we would fold here, we should call/push. As played, and assuming the villain isn't stupid, it sure looks like he wants us to call/push. So, we should fold.
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Hi Kip,
Look, I don't want to represent myself as an expert here, and you've shown yourself to be extremely smart about these things. I was just trying to give a possible explanation for what I thought the question was driving at.
The direct answer to your question is that Brunson (who doesn't know that we have a set, BTW), partially is looking for fold equity and partially doesn't care if we call because he's willing to gamble as long as he has outs.
In the book, he gives an example of playing 7d6d, which is a reasonable guess at what the villain in our situation has. Brunson writes:
"A good (or even great) flop to 6d7d would be a pair with a straight (or flush) draw, two-pair, trips, a straight, or a flush (even though it's a small one.
With any good flop to two small connecting cards...I'd play the hand as if it was complete -- whether it was or not. I'd lead with the hand in early position, and I'd raise in late position.
I'd play the hand to get all my money in the center to start with -- even if I flopped a pair with a draw. In the latter case, I'd play it that way because I'd have two chances to win it...when I bet or raise (and my opponent throws his hand away) -- or when I improve (if my bet or raise is called).
Naturally, you'll be in some jeopardy -- even when you get a very good flop. But you're almost always in some jeopardy. So you can't worry about somebody having the nuts all the time. If you did...you would never get to play the pot."
That's the passage I was relying on--you can judge for yourself whether it's relevant for this question or not.
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