Re: 200: 99 Flops a Set on Crappy Board
Some good points QTip. I think our chances all-in vs. UTG+1 aren't too bad if he is calling, if he is the one pushing, then they probably aren't as good, but he could have an underset for instance. He has raised in the past once, when he had the nuts, if he had the nuts here, wouldn't he have raised? I guess someone this passive you never know.
Basically there is only one possible hand that we would be drawing very thin too and that is the overset. I think this means we are at this point committed. That might change if we saw the turn and didn't like it, which I think is a reason to raise. If we get raised by SB sweet, let's do it. If we get raised by UTG+1, then maybe we can fold. He is predictable enough so if we weren't getting odds to draw to the FH, we can bail can't we? I think there is something in PNL about going over the 1/3 mark vs. predictable opponent might be OK. I've only read the book once so far though so maybe I got mixed up.
I don't know, maybe i'm too in love with sets, but I just think our hand is too good, but too vulnerable, not to raise vs. 3 people.
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