[Phil153]

I was thinking holdem. You're right about the denominator.

This is wrong though:

[ QUOTE ]
Chance of flopping quads with a pair in hand
c(2,2) * c(46,1) / c(48,3) = 0.00266

[/ QUOTE ]

quads is given by:

(1 non pair card)*(2 quad cards) + (1 pair card)(2 quad cards)

= C(44,1)*2 + C(4,1)*1

So that bit is correct. The mistake in my calc is the denominator. Also note that the set calculation includes a paired board, which gives a full house. I still call it a "flopped set", but others don't.

So the numbers are:

Flopped set on unpaired board: 44*40/2*4/C(48,3) = 20.35%
Flopped set on paired board (i.e. a full house): 11*6*4/C(48,3) = 1.53%
Quads: [C(44,1)*2 + C(4,1)*1]/C(48,3) = 0.53%