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Old 08-13-2007, 07:56 AM
franknagaijr franknagaijr is offline
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Default Re: Odds of flopping a set

[ QUOTE ]
Flop single set: C(44,2)*C(4,1)/C(50,3) = 19.3%
Flop double set: C(44,1)*2*2/C(50,3) = 0.89%
Flop quads: [C(44,1)*2+ C(4,1)*1]/C(50,3) = 0.47%

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that:

Chance of flopping quads with a pair in hand
c(2,2) * c(46,1) / c(48,3) = 0.00266

I assume that the chance of flopping either possible quads would be double that. I didn't double check the set numbers, but if you've got 4 cards in your hand, the denominator should be c(48/3).
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