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If you have to ask, please don't bet on currencies. Even if you didn't have to ask, still don't bet on currencies.
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Seriously.
Alan G also agrees:
"Nonetheless, despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests. The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into future rate changes but from market making."
That's from 2004, read the rest of it
here.
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I feel the same way about poker tournaments.
And I absolutely believe that no model/system is going to work.
But, nonetheless, as the OP, I can say that, yes, I am doing it well aware of the risks, and simply as yet another instance of me backing my opinion with my money. Maybe I just see it as a 3x payoff for a 2x draw, and thus am comfortable with it. I play poker and bet sports and invest (tho don't trade) in the market. This is just another risk/reward thang. And I won't be trading. I have no interest in trading currencies, which is where the costs add up. I just want to make a one time bet that the yen is the most underrated currency in the world, and will catch it's due value in the coming years. And if I lose, f me, but I've lost before and I'm still here.