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i firmly agree that there is no model that can predict currency movements.

i do believe that there is a ton of money to be made via betting on currencies since finding actors willing to lose a ton of money and taking the opposite side of their actions is clearly a winning strategy.

no systematic "model" can win though as they are likely too simplistic and just wrong.

you can though, build a trading system (like my old employer's) that uses signals etc. to consistently destroy the currency market by writing down your own logic etc.

i guess that could be considered a model in a sense, but i think it isn't at all what AG was referring to. if it is, then i don't agree and instead disagree as if you can make money from losing participants, and can write a model to find those instances and make money off of it, then clearly you can make a model to beat the currency markets.

my old employer did it for over 20 years and offered a fund to do it for 15.

Barron

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why do you not consider what you described a "model"? what do you define as a model?

basically you stated that you don't think any model can beat the fx markets, and then you went on to explain that a model/trading system can definitely beat the markets. i'm confused.

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yea, that was a bad explanation b/c i basically changed viewpoints in the middle and didn't go back to edit it lol.

anyways, the average model can' tbeat any market (lets call a model a set of trading rules based on whatever).

there are, however, great modelers just as there are great traders. if a great trader takes the time to write out his logic for each trade, he can see a model fall out of those notes. you can construct indicators out of those notes and then signals from the indicators to create a buy/sell decision.

this is what my old employer did and successfully beat (by a ton) the currency market for over 20 years and "officially" (in an audited fund) for 15.

therefore, i must respectfully disagree with AG since i've seen first hand what can be done. further, it makes logical sense that when non-profit maximizing entities are involved in a market in a very big way, their losses can be mopped up and thus the market in general can be beaten.

Barron