Re: Theory - Late Stages
Resteals are really about a very simple issue, and this is why we do what I suggest in the second tip. We are looking for players that both Raise too loose, AND call too tight. Why I am taking notes is, if I see a guy call with QTo after he raises and gets shoved on, well, I will not ever be restealing with junk on that guy, but I will certainly 3bet him slightly wider for Value. Likewise if I see a guy fold to a 3bet after raising, then I am slightly more inclined to resteal from him. It also lets me identify who at the table are the restealers. People that resteal dont do it just once and never again, they often become habitual restealers. This is pretty easy to discern, because the range at which we can 3bet for value is so incredibly tight. People only get 3% top hands after a raiser so often. If I see someone 3bet twice inside of three orbits, well... odds are pretty good they are light restealing as opposed to just getting good cards. These people I will generally call with anything I had raised with.
Do I really have charts made for where my hand is mathematically the best? Yes, several... I have a jam or fold chart that I use for 20bb, 15bb, 10bb, and 5bb. But this alone does not make my play completely algorithmic or anything. These charts simply show me which hands are more +chipEV to open push as opposed to fold. They arent perfect for several reasons. First, they assume that opponents are calling me optimally, which they dont. As a general rule people call too tight. Second, they assume a stance of +chipEV and not +$EV, my chips in my stack are worth more than the ones I can win (see sklansky), and therefore my chips have a premium. Note also that these first two major issues counterbalance. My opponents are too tight from optimal, but my chips are worth more, so I should be pushing slightly looser for reason one, but slightly tighter for reason two. Third, They only show wether open pushing is more +cEV than folding. Open raising might be the most +cEV, and these tables dont discuss that.
The reason I find them quite valuable is the insight they provide. Most people have no idea just how tight you need to be in the first couple positions, due to the math odds of someone having a hand that dominates you, multiplied by the number of opponents yet to act. Secondly, most people have no idea just how wide you can open push from button or small blind with relatively small stacks. Third, those that do recognize how wide you should be pushing late often adopt a push any two strategy, and this only works for so long, since our opponents can adjust to our play. I find that if I really open push from the charts, that it automatically finds a good balance, of pushing enough to stay ahead of the curve, yet not pushing so much that it affects my opponents play. These hands from the charts allow me to simply not care if I get called behind or not. Even if I am called optimally, its +EV push to the tune of margin of error of the blinds, so whatever. And finally, at the top end there are hands that I want to encourage action, and these can be balanced by hands slightly under the range that I can raise steal without open pushing.
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