[Abbaddabba]

Since you arent value betting the river if he just calls and you fail to improve, you win about the same by checking behind and calling a river bluff for times when he has 10 high or worse. When he has K high or a worse ace high, you can likely value bet a blank river and expect to get called a ton if checked to. (i assume he bets any river if you check behind too)



If he has a better hand that isnt going to check/raise, you lose the same (or less than if he would call and then donkt he river). You arguably win less when you improve because you dont always get a river raise paid off, and you dont always want to raise.

If he has a hand that will check/raise, you're obviously a lot better off as you save two bets with with a hand that tends to be quite a bit ahead of you.