[sapsuckah]

This raise is obviously a bet from someone who doesn't know what they're doing. Given that (and that it's a $6.50), he could be doing this with a very wide range: medium pairs, weaker aces, even bizarro stuff like KQ.

What I think is unlikely is AA/KK. Most weaker players will make smaller raises to try to keep you in, while some will push preflop in hopes that someone will want to gamble and come along.

So I think your AKs is ahead of his range and warrants a push.

But let's say you're right and it's a medium pair, say 99 or TT. Your AKs has 47% equity vs 99 and about 46% vs TT. If you push and he calls, the pot will be your 1500, his 1500, 160 from the first two in, and 10 from the SB or 3170. So you're betting 1500 to win 1670... so you'll need to win 47% of the time to break even (exactly the odds you need). Again this is if you're SURE he's on a medium pair.

But, like I said, I think his range is a lot wider than that and includes lots of A's weaker than yours. Plus, there's even a small chance at this buyin level that he may fold to your push.

Conclusion: instapush.


Edit: Oh, and not to mention the fact that doubling early puts you in great position to go deep, while busting early is preferable to whittling downward for a while and busting in 12th.