Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
Let's do the math ... I'll stick with my raising range of AJ+,88+ .. once you push let's say that villain calls with AQ+,JJ+. So villain raises 69 hands and calls your push with 39 of them - that's 56%
If you shove and villain folds, you have 7.800 chips
If you shove get called and win, you have 12.600 chips
If villain calls, you are a 33% favorite to win the pot.
0.44 x 7800 + 0.56 x 0.33 x 12600 = 5760
So you are losing 240 chips on average with this shove
Let's try it, if villain calls the shove with AJ+,TT+. Now he is calling with 57 hands of his 69 hand raising range (83%) and once he calls, you are a 42% underdog.
0.17 x 7800 + 0.83 x 0.42 x 12600 = 5718
Not much better .. still a loss of 382 chips on average.
Now let's see what happens if villain calls with his whole range
0.43 x 12600 = 5418 even worse -EV
Going with your read I'd say that villain calls pretty wide here which makes a shove -EV unless you adjust the raising range.
|