[Assani Fisher]

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Assani, I appreciate your comments and hope this doesn't come across as impolite. That's not my intention.

I don't want to turn this into a debate about the pfr. I thought I adequately explained the reasons for the pfr, but perhaps I didn't, and I fully understand that nothing on a message board can substitute for being at the table. Suffice it to say that, while I can see disagreeing with a pfr, to call it a "mistake" is really wrong, IMHO, for a number of reasons. While I think I listed some of them, to respond briefly to one that you raised ... by raising pre-flop, I believe I make it *less* likely that he will get involved in the hand with me. As I mentioned, one reason I raised is to buy position. If I thought I was not likely to get position, I would have been less likely to raise.

I should have mentioned that Button's VPIP is low 40s ... so he does seem to show some kind of selection pre-flop.

I'm going to save responding to comments about the rest of the hand (and giving results) until others post. I appreciate everyone that has responded so far.

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Not impolite at all man, and I can understand that you just want to focus on the turn aspect of the hand. Icy pots, friend.


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The turn was not "horrible for our hand", it might have given us 9 more outs to the high

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In my haste I failed to notice the club draw we added on the turn. Point noted.

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I don't think that way you exploit bad players is to shove all the chips in with small advantages (which may be the right play against good aggressive players). The way to exploit bad players is to get the money in when you are WAY ahead and they are too dumb to realize it. Players like this you can just murder on the river.

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Agreed, but if hes on a draw and misses then obviously hes not going to pay us off on the river. Do agree with your overall point.

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Would a blocking bet work against this guy?

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You could bet 1/2 pot on the turn and then check/fold if you miss or set him all-in on the river. It will save you a few dollars if you miss but still give you the full upside if you hit.


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This is an interesting aspect. Perhaps its overthinking here to use 3rd level thinking with this opponent, but I would think that you betting a small portion of your stack could make it look like you definitely want to make sure you get it all in and are trying to string him along slowly to have it all in at the river.

The more I think about it, the more I like a bet in the $75-100 range.

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As I thought would be obvious -- but I guess not -- the "99% sure" statement is a bit of an exaggeration. My read is that he bets when an aggressive player shows weakness, so I'd expect him to do that here. But there's no guarantee. Better?


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I think this is a totally different situation though for 2 reasons:

1. He'd be betting into a dry side pot(and furthermore even if he eliminated you, the guy thats still in the hand has shown a lot of strength by check raising the flop)

2. Its possible that he is on a draw with a hand like 23 of spades.

While #2 alone doesn't guarantee a check, I think that when you couple it with #1 it does. Like I said earlier, if you're up against a set then all of the money is getting in here regardless of what you do, so you should focus on how he would play other hands.

The only other hand than a set or a draw would be 2 pair. I guess I could kinda see how if you bet big even when the straight came out that would show extreme strength and would cause him to think that you must have AA and fold. But even still you have no hand at the moment(king high) and have an all in opponent to beat.


Edited to add:

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I've got to guess that he's folding a river that's a high spade

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If he also has 2 spades, based upon your description of him, I think you could get it all in with a check/raise on the river.