[niss]

As I thought would be obvious -- but I guess not -- the "99% sure" statement is a bit of an exaggeration. My read is that he bets when an aggressive player shows weakness, so I'd expect him to do that here. But there's no guarantee. Better?

As Mendacious's posts illustrate, there seems to be a question here. I'm sorry you disagree because your posts are usually insightful.

I'm simply asking how people would play the turn. I don't think I want him to fold, which leaves me playing against just the all-in. At the same time, I don't want to miss the chance to get his money in while I am either ahead or at least have better than 33% equity (my guess as that I was ahead on the turn). I've got to guess that he's folding a river that's a high spade, at the least, if it goes check-check. Then again, I agree with Mendacious that against a player like this betting small advantages is probably sub-optimal.

Perhaps this is simply read dependent, as most hand posts are.

I think there are a few questions here.

Edit: posted before I saw your edit.