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Old 08-08-2007, 02:28 AM
paperboyNC paperboyNC is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: San Diego, CA
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Default Re: Flop Top Set, Puke Turn

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't have any reads on villain. No way to see that coming. Also, if he isn't going to call, why would he want villain all in?

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that a check/fold is likely far better than a bet/fold because:

A) If a bet makes him more likely to have you beat, it also makes you more pot-committed since you have a lot of outs.

B) If you're going to fold to a push after betting, your opponent is more likely to be bluffing because bluffing is more profitable into a bigger pot and hence folding is even worse.

Most decent players do not bluff $96 to win $18 (bluff needs to succeed 84%, 81% if semi-bluffing , they may however - if they were going to call with a flush draw - bluff $78 to win $54 (bluff needs to succeed 59%, only 50% if semi-bluffing)

EDIT to add, even though the turn bet is $155, it's really just under $100 because Hero started with $105 and has around $96 left.
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