Re: Flop Top Set, Puke Turn
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He didn't have any reads on villain. No way to see that coming. Also, if he isn't going to call, why would he want villain all in?
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What I'm saying is that a check/fold is likely far better than a bet/fold because:
A) If a bet makes him more likely to have you beat, it also makes you more pot-committed since you have a lot of outs.
B) If you're going to fold to a push after betting, your opponent is more likely to be bluffing because bluffing is more profitable into a bigger pot and hence folding is even worse.
Most decent players do not bluff $96 to win $18 (bluff needs to succeed 84%, 81% if semi-bluffing , they may however - if they were going to call with a flush draw - bluff $78 to win $54 (bluff needs to succeed 59%, only 50% if semi-bluffing)
EDIT to add, even though the turn bet is $155, it's really just under $100 because Hero started with $105 and has around $96 left.
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