Re: Misconceptions about Me, Baye\'s, Rigor, Exodus, Evolution
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Ok, I got over my disgust at the first sentence. On to serious question(s) for David:
What do you assess is the probability of there existing some event that occurs exactly once throughout the duration of the universe? Or is it even possible to assess this quantity?
Is it sensible to talk in the language of physics about these events, if they exist?
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You can't mean what you are asking. Someone getting eight royals in a row might be favored to happen exactly once.
As for my disbelief in miracles, it does not stem from the fact that I think their probability is so low that it is favored that they will never happen. It is because I believe that there is a high probability that their probability is zero. The answers come out the same but their is a difference. Sort of like the difference between my saying a baseball team is 60% to win and a sprinter is 60% to win. In the second case I am actually saying that there is a 60% chance that the sprinter is (virtually) 100%.
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