Re: SNG bubble, donk call IMO
Blinds: 300/600/A50
CO (t6245)
Hero (t3110)
SB (t1585)
BB (t2560)
Dealt to Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Preflop: <font color="red">CO raises all-in t6195</font>, Hero ???
So the single-hand number is a call is -1.5% against any two. It gets a little better if you remove some of the biggest hands from his range, only -1.3% without QQ-AA.
call/win the next hand looks like
Hero (t7220) (38.5% prepost equity)
Button (t1235)
SB (t1910)
BB (t3135)
Most of Hero's pushes are in between +0.7% and +1.3%, depending the calling ranges but most seem to fall in that area. Basically, we can discount the hit taken by calling by the profit from shoving ATC (about 1%) in the next hand about 70% of the time we win the current hand.
The hand after that (assuming everyone folds) is
CO (t1185)
Button (t1560)
SB (t2485)
Hero (t8270) (40.8% prepost equity)
and a walk to
CO (t1135)
Button (t1510)
SB (t2135)
Hero (t8620) (41.7% prepost equity)
So there's a pretty likely part of that 70% you win calling with AQs that's +3.2% and doesn't even include you picking up some monster like K5s on the BB and being about the make a good call.
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