Re: Misconceptions about Me, Baye\'s, Rigor, Exodus, Evolution
You want P(bad coin | you flip 3 heads )
Call bad coin event A and flipping 3 heads event B .
P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B) = [1/10*(9/10)^3]/[9/10*0.125 +1/10*(9/10)^3] = 0.0729 / 0.1854 = 39.32% .
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