[carlo]

[ QUOTE ]
Notice that this technique works for events that have already happened as long as everyione agrees on the original probabilities.



[/ QUOTE ]

Note that in the case of Exodus, Flood, Resurrection, or more considerably any historical event which is beyond a secretary recording the event(even this has the problem of a flawed secretary) the probabilities are definitely not evident. If the probabilities are agreed upon then you have a self fulfilling prophesy, the inherent bias of of the probability makers.This offers no comfort to to anyone hoping to find some semblence of truth, for in this type of approach the methodology becomes more important than the truth.

Its one thing to speculate on the probability of an event which is neuter as the rolling of dice but to bring this method to the world of religion, morality, or any matters which are important to the hearts and souls of men is without truth, beauty, or the good which is important to these very men.