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Just read the section on "Commitment Threshold."

All I have to say is that the Rule of 5 & 10 makes a hell of a lot more sense now!

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Ciaffone's 5-10 rule example is that you have 98s on the button, 3 players limp and so do you. The BB, "a solid player" raises to 7xBB, and two of the limpers call. He writes:

"Your position is the best possible, but your don't have much of a hand. A good rule to follow is the 5-10 rule. When contemplating calling a raise because your position is good, you have a clear call if the amount is less than 5% of your stack, and a clear fold if it is more than 10%. In between those numbers, use your judgment." He then makes a comment about how the raiser has to have a deep stack, implying that 5-10 applies to the effective stack between you and the raiser.

Now, Ciaffone was stating that if you had ~70xBB-140xBB in the example, you had a decision to make. If you had less than 70xBB, it was a clear fold. More than 140xBB it was a clear call.

However, using PNL SPR analysis, we see that if we call, the final preflop pot will be 29xBB. Meaning our SPR at 70xBB will be ~2.5, and at 140xBB will be ~5. In other words, if we flop so much as a draw, the pot will be so big that if we put any more money into it, we will be committed to go all the way.

The problem is, so will anyone with TPTK or an overpair or a set or 2 pair or a bigger draw, etc. Usually, when the pot gets so big that 2 or more players are forced to commit on the flop, the drawing hand is taking the worst of it (unless it is a combo draw).

So, the 5-10 rule focuses on the size of the raise vs your stack. SPR focuses on the size of the final preflop pot vs. your stack, and is far more useful. It keeps you out of pots with 98s when your SPR is 3-5.

Further, the 5-10 rule gets misapplied all the time. People forget about the "good position" part.

Finally, if the pot is going to be heads up and you have a a drawing hand in position, I suggest that a better rule would be 2-5. You have a clear call if the raise is less than 2% of your stack, and a clear fold if the raise is more than 5% of your stack. In between, you have a decision. Why? 2% would lead to an SPR of ~25. 5% would lead to an SPR of ~10. Drawing hands play well for value at high SPRs. Drawing hands play well for stealing at medium SPRs.

Even if you call 8% of your stack heads up in position (as Ciaffone's rule implies you might), the SPR is going to be 6 which will be difficult to play when your foe crosses the commitment threshold with a continuation bet (be it a bluff or for value) on the flop.