Re: Question re Turning Pro - When is Best?
I've got a few things to say:
1. Your sample size is too small to really know your ROI. Especially for MTT. One big score could be a huge chunk of the ROI you've got and you might have been lucky to get it (I'm not saying your a losing player [even though it is possible] or even necessarily worse than your results [you may really be a 200% ROI player on a downswing], just that there are huge error bars on your estimate of your true ROI%). Also note your true ROI may be quite different if you start playing tournaments at different times with different players and different numbers of players and different buy in levels.
2. You shouldn't buy a house in 2008. I know more about the real estate market in the US than Australia (where abouts in Australia are you?), but I do know a bit about the real estate market in Australia since my Dad just bought a house last month and retired there (Narooma, NSW). The real estate market was in a huge up turn in both places and is starting the decline. Early 2008 is definitely too soon in the US and likely too soon in Australia. If you want your own place, rent it - this will be especially a good decision since you may want to move over the next couple of years (back to your parents as you go broke OR to a nicer larger place as you make $$$ playing poker and start to want a family).
3. You may want to try some STT to augment your MTT, if you aren't already. They will tend to have smaller swings in your bankroll (smaller in both directions) but may be easier to find if you play at non-peak US/Europe times.
4. Low overhead for 6 months is an ok idea, definitely required if you are about to enter a huge commitment like a death-pledge, but if you go with renting instead of the mortgage it may be less required.
5. Make sure you post both on what your final decision is and how your pro poker career goes to 2+2 - especially if your pro-career doesn't work out (I'm not saying it will not). We tend to get sampling errors as if people try being pros and it doesn't work out they don't tend to post where as if it does they do tend to post. Seeing someone on the verge of going pro means we know about you and you've been posting *before* anyone knows for sure which side of the success/failure your pro career will go, so it makes it that much more valuable to hear about the outcome.
6. Good luck what ever you decide.
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