[plzleenowhammy]

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folding nits what is he losing to?

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It's not about what he is losing to. It is about what he could lose to.

Say hypothetically that if he folds this hand right now he is 95% to get a seat.

If he shoves, his opponents are certainly not drawing dead. But, let's say he is 75% to win the pot if he shoves. If he shoves and wins, he gets a seat 100% of the time.

When he shoves and loses, his chances of getting a seat drop to ~40%. Again this is hypothetical.

So 75% of the time, he increases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $215. A gain of $10.75.

25% of the time he decreases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $86 (.40 * $215), a loss of $129.

Now to complete the math: (.75 * $10.75) + (.25 * -$128) = $8.06 + -$32.25 ~= -$24.19.

Thus, shoving here costs the OP $24.19 everytime he does so, making a +cEV play -$EV.

This example is hypothetical to demonstrate why making a +cEV play in a Sat can be hugely -$EV. An even better one can be done in this case by 1) making better estimates of OP's chances of winning a seat if he folds 2) making estimates of his opponents' hand ranges 3) running the numbers in pokerstove and 4) making a better estimate of his chances of winning a seat if he loses.

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