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Old 08-04-2007, 12:53 PM
Apanage Apanage is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 958
Default Re: Folding preflop to 3-bet?

Make it A4o/A5o from CO and you get 3-bet by him from button.Everyone is folding back to you.
We probably must hit an ace on flop and when we do we are sure to win less when our hand is good than he wins when he is ahead.We pretty much are destined to lose 0.5BB-1BB more when we are behind than when we are ahead (if we look at enough big sample)when we get a piece of the flop.We also are more proned to be the one folding the best hand.
Ignore metagame considerations because he is a by the book TAG.Could it not be a better decision to fold this hand or am I way off thinking about it.
I have calculated his range to be 77+,A9s,KJs,AJo,
Then we have about 33% equity against his range.But that is when we go to showdown and it includes hitting an ace on turn or river.But we are seldom going to see the turn or river unless we hit an ace on flop.
Add the folding best hand risk and the lose more ahead than behind scenario and I´m not so sure of the benefits of continuing if we see the hand in a vaccuum.
But I would be glad to be proven wrong because I never fold in these spots but I also never seem to win anything by calling and that has started to get me wondering.
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