Re: $16: Big stack battle with AK
Neva eva? I'm the thinnest of favorites against a range of {KK-99,AQ+}. I'm not sure that villain would shove 22bbs with AJ, so widening his range is probably to my detriment. Flipping a coin with t600 in overlay is pretty good, I guess, especially since I'd have a healthy stack even if I lost. But I felt at the time that if I folded I could ensure myself a big stack going into the bubble with which to bully the other players.
I just did some rough ICM calculations which suggest a fold. Going into the hand, my equity is around $45. If I call and win, my equity increases to $57, but if I call and lose, my equity plummets to $26. Basically, the chips I could win from this confrontation are worth far less than the chips I could lose.
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