[levAA]

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this cant possible be a fold, we have only 2 more hands before we're in the BB again. I'm not saying it's +cEV, but it's a risk we *have* to take here

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i don't understand your argument, if it is not +EV it's a bad move. you have 9BB and a M of about 4, this means you are looking for spot to move in.
lower M means your opening requirements go down because the blinds get larger compared to your stack.
it doesn't mean that you should move your chips in in -EV situations.
if you pass the blinds and are in the same situation next orbit this becomes a clear push - cause your M is down to 3.