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Old 08-01-2007, 11:47 PM
_TKO_ _TKO_ is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Default Re: How do you rationalize this?

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But my question is: can this be applied to other implied odds situations like calling for a draw? In other words, if you call with a draw against the odds and don't make it up with implied odds, can this be justified by the other times you hit your draw and make more than the implied odds require?

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Look at it this way. Say you want to call with a gushot getting 7:1 immediate odds (it's about 11:1 to hit) and hoping you will make it up in implied odds. What this means is that, out of all the times you hit your draw getting 7:1, you need to earn about 4 times the amount of the bet you called on average. The problem is that you'll have a hard time averaging out a rare scenario like drawing to a gutshot, so you should only call if you can reasonably expect to get paid the missing amount. It's like loaning your opponent an equity advantage.

On the other hand, and this is something I wonder about as well, if you don't expect to get paid when you hit, then you should find more opportunities to represent draws that hit when you don't hold that draw yourself.
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