Re: I made a vid
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Hands that beat us:
- 5x, unlikely because he would lead river
- 9x, possible -> folds often against $30 bet
- Jx, possible -> folds sometime but mostly calls $30 bet
- pp (TT,88,66,77,44,33,22) -> folds most of them often
- Ax -> never folds, possible holding
- KsQs; splits. folds a lot
Yeah, I think there is merit to a bet. Especially because of the limp-call preflop it's weighted towards low pp's and weak 9 or weak J's.
How often does he need to fold for the bet to be profitable?
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Assuming you're betting $30 he would need to fold about 40% of the time to break even. I would say about 90% of his range he is at least folding some of the time so I would expect to see a fold here in total at least 50% of the time.
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